Why Shoplifting Is Rising Despite Tech Advances: Causes & Strategic Solutions

Despite smart cameras, AI, and anti-theft systems improving retail security, the volume of shoplifting incidents has grown a whopping 93% since 2019.

For loss prevention leaders, analysts, and policymakers, this isn’t just a statistic. It’s a wake-up call.

Employees face more aggression, and customers face barriers that hinder the shopping experience. At the same time, investigators are under pressure to find smarter ways to catch up with increasingly sophisticated offenders.

Separating perception from reality is critical: has the problem truly escalated, or have criminals simply evolved faster than traditional responses?

The answer requires going beyond technology.

In this article, we’ll unpack the drivers behind this increase, show why 2019 is the true benchmark, and, most importantly, discuss layered strategic solutions.

What’s Fueling the Surge? Underlying Drivers

Before discussing solutions, we need to understand the root of the problem. Below, we’ll explore the main underlying drivers for this surge in shoplifting.

The sophistication of organized retail crime (ORC)

Retail theft has evolved from isolated incidents into a sophisticated criminal enterprise. Organized Retail Crime (ORC) now represents a significant share of industry losses.

These criminal networks operate with military-like logistics, established resale channels, and advanced technology. And as noted by Pinkerton, they are highly adaptive, frequently reoffend, and exhibit a growing trend of violence.

The consequences are severe: plummeting employee morale, increased staff turnover, and soaring security expenditures.

Economic pressure and opportunistic theft

Economic instability is a key catalyst for retail theft. As financial pressures mount, individuals may turn to theft for necessity, while criminal networks exploit the situation for profit.

This isn’t just a theory.

As Flock Safety warns, this combination of widespread economic hardship and inefficient law enforcement has become a dangerous recipe for unprecedented theft levels.

And while major chains feel the pain, it is small businesses, without the shield of a robust security budget, that are facing an existential threat. The entire sector now stands at a crossroads, forced to determine if this is a passing storm or the bleak new reality of doing business.

Technology alone is not a deterrent

Retail hasn’t skimped on innovation. Smart cameras, AI recognition, and automated checkouts are already part of the routine in many stores.

Yet, this technological investment is meeting a harsh reality: it cannot single-handedly stem the tide of theft.

As the Financial Times highlights, these systems are adept at identifying incidents but are powerless against the root causes: plummeting conviction rates, escalating violence, and the relentless adaptation of Organized Retail Crime (ORC) networks.

Without robust response protocols and decisive legal consequences, stores are merely amassing a digital archive of crimes that continue to go unpunished.

Why compare to pre-COVID (2019)?

To understand what really changed in retail, we need to look back at 2019. That is the critical pre-pandemic baseline, a year untainted by lockdowns and supply chain chaos.

Comparing current data to this benchmark reveals a shocking 93% surge in theft, as reported by the LPRC. This isn’t a simple rebound to normalcy.

It’s a fundamental and dangerous escalation.

The data indicates a structural shift in both criminal tactics and the overall retail threat landscape, demanding a new class of solutions.

Strategic solutions: layered and intelligent, not just technological

This new reality requires strategies that are as advanced and adaptable as the threats themselves. Here are some quick, consistent, and sustainable answers.

Intelligence-driven repression and restrictive legislation

Courts and legislators have tightened rules against ORC. Aggregation laws allow multiple thefts committed by repeat offenders to be grouped together, closing loopholes that previously favored impunity.

Furthermore, the recent cases highlighted by Pinkerton show that specialized task forces and harsher penalties help break up gangs and reduce recidivism.

But repression without intelligence is just a palliative.

Real progress happens when consistent data guides investigations and allows retailers and authorities to act in a coordinated manner. This combination of firm law and strategic enforcement is what really creates barriers to ORC networks at scale.

Technology plus human focus

AI and advanced surveillance are already part of the retail arsenal, but they alone are not enough. As the Financial Times highlighted, intelligent systems reduce losses only when combined with trained human supervision.

It’s people who filter out false positives, respond quickly, and ensure that security doesn’t put customers or employees at risk.

Training programs show clear results. They reduce errors, increase team confidence, and offer safe protocols for increasingly aggressive situations.

The ideal equation is not machine versus human, but machine with human: technology to identify patterns and people to turn alerts into effective decisions.

Economic and political interventions

The fight against retail crime requires looking beyond security.

Supporting local communities, investing in social programs, and creating alternative sources of income help reduce the recruitment base for crime.

Another critical point is attacking resale markets.

As long as online platforms and social media continue to facilitate the circulation of stolen goods, the cycle will continue.

In short, effective policies need to balance social prevention with tough enforcement, fighting not only those who steal, but also those who profit from what was stolen.

Public-private collaboration (ORC task forces and data sharing)

Combating ORC only works when retailers and authorities work together.

Platforms like Hubstream and Veesion, combined with automatic license plate readers (LPRs), allow retailers to link seemingly unrelated crimes, identify vehicles used in offenses, and track repeat offenders, even across state lines.

Take Hubstream, for example. Loss prevention teams can use Hubstream to spot suspicious patterns and repeat offenders before theft happens. Automatically alert your security team or law enforcement so you can reduce losses and prevent future incidents on your property.

For retailers, it means reducing losses and increasing the sense of security; for authorities, it means gaining visibility into networks operating at scale.

In the end, collaboration is not optional, but the link that closes the chain between prevention, investigation, and real deterrence.

Conclusion

Technology is crucial, but on its own, it doesn’t solve the problem. The surge in retail theft post-2019 has shown that cameras, sensors, and AI are only part of the equation.

The challenge is structural and demands a multi-layered response that includes:

• Intelligence-led enforcement, to identify patterns and act quickly.
• Consistent legal reforms, closing loopholes exploited by repeat offenders.
• Socioeconomic policies, reducing the fertile ground for crime.
• Data-sharing networks, connecting retailers and law enforcement in real time.

The comparison with 2019 makes it clear: this isn’t a return to “normal,” but a profound shift in crime dynamics.

To meet it head-on, responses must evolve far beyond technology alone.

Want to know how Hubstream can assist you to reduce losses? Book a demo today to learn more.